THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(8) Marquette (23-5, 11-11-1 ATS) at (6) Louisville (22-5, 17-10 ATS)
Surging Louisville returns home from a two-game road trip for a key Big East matchup against Marquette at Freedom Hall.
The Cardinals dropped Cincinnati 72-63 as a 5½-point road chalk Feb. 21, then routed host Georgetown 76-58 Monday as a one-point favorite for their fourth straight win and cover (all in the Big East), bouncing back nicely from a 33-point loss at Notre Dame on Feb. 12. During its four-game roll, Louisville has averaged 85.3 ppg and allowed just 62.8, and the Cards have held eight of their last 10 opponents under 70 points.
Marquette suffered its first home loss of the season Wednesday, falling to No. 2 Connecticut 93-82 as a one-point pup to end a three-game SU run, and the Golden Eagles are now 1-5 ATS in their last six starts, all in the Big East. For the season, Marquette has put up an average of 80 ppg while allowing 69 ppg, but the margin gets substantially tighter on the road, where the Golden Eagles average 74.8 and give up just a shade less at 73.2.
Louisville is second in the Big East at 13-2 SU (12-3 ATS), with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record at home. Marquette is tied for third in the conference at 12-3 SU (8-7 ATS), going 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS on the road.
Louisville has won and cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry, including home and road wins last season by 20 and 14 points, respectively. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, but the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Cardinals are on a bundle of ATS runs, including 35-16-1 overall, 11-2 on Sunday, 4-1 against winning teams, 20-8 after a spread cover and 42-13-2 in the Big East. The Golden Eagles are on positive ATS stretches of 13-6 on the road and 7-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but along with their 1-5 ATS slide in Big East play, they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Sunday starts.
The over for Louisville is on rolls of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 at home, and the over for Marquette is on streaks of 14-6 on the road, 44-18-2 in roadies against teams with a winning home record and 7-3 after a SU loss. However, the under is 5-1 in Marquette’s last six games against winning teams, and the total has stayed low in five of the last six clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
(11) Missouri (24-4, 13-8 ATS) at (15) Kansas (23-5, 16-5-1 ATS)
Red-hot Missouri puts its seven-game winning streak on the line in Lawrence in a Big 12 battle against defending national champion Kansas, which will seek to avenge last month’s loss in Columbia.
The Tigers drubbed Kansas State 94-74 as a 10-point home favorite Wednesday to improve to 6-1 ATS during their seven-game run, all within the Big 12. In the last five games, Missouri’s offensive numbers are down a couple notches offensively, with an average of 74.8 ppg scored, compared with its season-long average of 81.7. However, the Tigers have turned up the heat defensively, yielding just 60.4 ppg in the last five starts, more than five points lower than its season average (65.7).
The Jayhawks bested No. 3 Oklahoma 87-78 as a two-point road pup Monday night for their fourth straight victory (3-1 ATS), and they are now leading the Big 12 with a 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS mark. Since the loss to Mizzou, Kansas has posted three double-digit wins along with the victory over the Sooners and has won those four games by an average final score of 78.5-65.
Missouri is just behind Kansas at 11-2 in the Big 12 (9-4 ATS), including 4-2 SU and ATS on the road. The Jayhawks are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS when hosting conference rivals.
Missouri scored just 16 points in the first 20 minutes against Kansas three weeks ago, but made a furious second-half run and erased a 14-point deficit to narrowly secure a 62-60 home win, but the Tigers failed to cover as a five-point chalk. The underdog is 10-4-2 ATS in the last 16 clashes between these two; however, Kansas is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four overall.
The Tigers are on positive ATS pushes of 4-1 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-1 after an ATS win, but they are on a 6-17 ATS slide on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Jayhawks are on spread-covering sprees of 22-6-1 overall, 15-3-1 in the Big 12, 8-2-1 at home and 36-16-1 against winning teams, but they are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home starts versus teams with a winning road record.
The over for Missouri is on runs of 14-6 after the Tigers have put up more than 90 points and 5-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. On the flip side, the under for Kansas is on streaks of 7-2 overall (all in Big 12 play), 5-0 at home and 7-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
Tennessee (17-10, 10-14-1 ATS) at Florida (21-7, 8-12-1 ATS)
Two teams struggling toward the regular-season finish line in the SEC square off when Tennessee travels to Gainesville to face Florida at the O’Connell Center.
The Volunteers held off Mississippi State 81-76 Wednesday to end a two-game SU hiccup, but Tennessee fell short of cashing as a nine-point chalk in taking its third straight ATS setback. The Vols are a middling 5-5 in their last 10 games (3-7 ATS), averaging 70.4 ppg – eight points below its season mark – on 42.7 percent shooting, while giving up 66.4 ppg on 46.5 percent shooting. They’ve also dropped three consecutive SEC roadies SU and ATS.
The Gators fell to No. 18 LSU 81-75 as a 3½-point road ‘dog Tuesday, ending a two-game SU upswing while failing to cover for the third time in the last four games. Like Tennessee, Florida is 5-5 SU in its last 10 (4-5-1 ATS), including 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five starts. However, the Gators are a perfect 16-0 SU at home this season (4-6 ATS in lined games), winning by an average margin of nearly 17 ppg (81.1-64.2).
Tennessee and Florida are both 8-5 SU in the SEC, tied for second in the East Division. The Vols are 5-8 ATS in conference play, going 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in road games. The Gators are 6-6-1 ATS in the SEC, with a 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS mark at home.
Tennessee has won and covered the last four in this rivalry, including a 79-63 home rout laying four points in January and an 89-86 road win giving 2½ points in Gainesville last March. The Vols are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to Florida, though the home team is on a 4-1 ATS run and the favorite has also covered in four of the last five clashes.
The Volunteers are on nothing but negative ATS runs, including 2-5 overall (all in SEC action), 0-4 on the road, 1-5 against winning teams, 1-4 after a SU win and 3-9 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Sunday tilts, but they are otherwise on pointspread declines of 2-5 overall (all in the SEC), 6-15 at home and 2-8 after a SU loss.
The under for Tennessee is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1 after a SU win, 5-1 on Sunday and 4-1 on the road. Conversely, the over for Florida is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 17-4 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 14-5-1 at home against teams with a losing road record. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 5-1 in Gainesville and 4-1 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(9) Michigan State (22-5, 13-10-1 ATS) at (20) Illinois (23-6, 15-9-1 ATS)
Michigan State and Illinois look to firm up their postseason credentials in a battle of the top two teams in the Big Ten at Assembly Hall.
The Spartans beat Iowa 62-54 Wednesday night but fell far short as an overwhelming 15-point home chalk for its second ATS setback in the last three games. Michigan State is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in its last nine starts, all within the Big Ten, and the Spartans have unleashed a stifling defense in their last five outings, giving up just 53 ppg – nearly 10 points lower than its season average (62.9) – while scoring 61.2 ppg.
The Fighting Illini bested Minnesota 52-41 giving 7½ points at home for their second straight win and cover, and they are now 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in their last six starts, all in Big Ten play. Illinois’ defense has been rigid all season long, ranking No. 3 in the country at 55.3 ppg allowed, but that impressive number goes down to 52.4 on the Illini’s home floor. And in its last five games, Illinois has held its opponents to a meager 51.6 ppg, while scoring 56 ppg.
Michigan State is 12-3 SU (8-6-1 ATS) in conference play, including a solid 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS on the road. Illinois is 11-5 SU (9-6-1 ATS), with a 7-1 SU (4-2-1 ATS) mark in Big Ten home contests.
Michigan State has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), though Illinois covered as an eight-point pup in a 63-57 road loss in mid-January, as the Illini improved to 9-4 ATS in the last 13 contests. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Spartans are on ATS upswings of 16-7-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1-1 on the road and 6-1 after a non-cover. The Illini are on a 15-6-1 ATS run against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they are on pointspread skids of 2-7 at home against teams with a winning road record and 3-7-1 at home after giving up less than 50 points in their prior game.
The under for Michigan State is on runs of 6-0 overall (all in conference), 4-0 after a SU win and 4-0 against winning teams, and the under for Illinois is on tears of 6-1 overall, 6-0 against winning teams, 12-2 at home, 20-8-1 on Sunday and 35-17-1 in Big Ten games. Finally, the under is 6-0 in the last six series meetings overall and 7-0 in the last seven clashes at Assembly Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (48-11, 31-28 ATS) at Phoenix (33-25, 22-34-2 ATS)
The Lakers, who flattened Phoenix 132-106 as an 11-point chalk three days ago at Staples Center, make the return trip to U.S. Airways Arena to take on the Suns.
Los Angeles fell to Denver 90-79 as a two-point road chalk Friday night, halting a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) and losing for the first time in the last 10 clashes with the Nuggets (8-2 ATS). The Lakers had been racking up the points lately, scoring 107 or more in five straight games prior to Friday’s season-low in Denver, and they’ve been consistent this season offensively, averaging 108.8 ppg overall and 108.2 ppg on the road.
Phoenix bounced back from the blowout loss to the Lakers by ripping Toronto 133-113 as a 3½-point home favorite Friday, with Shaquille O’Neal scoring 45 points – his best output in six years. The Suns have now alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games. In fact, the SU winner is on a 10-0 ATS surge in Phoenix’s last 10 starts. The Suns are putting up an eye-popping 119.8 ppg in their last five games, but they are also allowing 118.6 ppg in that span.
Los Angeles has won the last four clashes in this rivalry (3-1 ATS), including a 105-92 win giving 4½ points in December on its last trip to the desert. In fact, the Lakers have covered in four straight at Phoenix and are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall, and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Lakers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 when playing on one day of rest, but they are otherwise on pointspread rolls of 8-3 on the road, 6-2 after a non-cover, 20-9 in Pacific Division contests and 10-5 this season when playing on back-to-back nights. The Suns are on a 5-2 ATS run overall and a 5-1-1 ATS spurt at home, but they are on pointspread slides of 7-22-1 after a spread-cover, 4-11 after a SU win and 8-21 against winning teams.
The over for Los Angeles is on tears of 10-3-1 on the road, 8-1 in division play and 7-2 against winning teams, and the over for Phoenix is on streaks of 7-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 5-1 after a day off, 4-1 at home and 6-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over has hit seven of the last nine meetings overall in four of the last five battles in Phoenix.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cleveland (45-12, 38-19 ATS) at Atlanta (33-25, 30-28 ATS)
The Cavaliers head into their third game of a four-game road swing when they take on the Hawks at Philips Arena.
Cleveland dropped San Antonio 97-86 Friday night as a four-point road chalk, getting 30 points and 14 rebounds from LeBron James to bounce back from Thursday’s 93-74 blowout loss at Houston as a 3½-point favorite. The Cavs have outscored opponents by nearly 10 points per game on the year (100.2-90.5), but that margin gets cut in half on the road, where Cleveland is averaging 96.8 ppg and allowing 92.1 while posting a 21-7 record (16-12 ATS).
Atlanta returned home from a six-game road trip Friday and topped Miami 91-83 as a 5½-point home chalk to halt a three-game SU skid, and the Hawks covered for the second straight game after dropping four straight ATS decisions. Atlanta is 20-6 on its home floor (13-13 ATS), averaging 100.2 ppg and give up 94.6 ppg.
Cleveland is 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, but back on Dec. 13, the Cavs had a 11-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped when they went to Atlanta and lost 97-92 as a four-point road favorite. Cleveland still 7-2 ATS in its last nine trips to Atlanta and 13-6 ATS in the last 19 contests overall. Finally, the favorite is on a 16-6 ATS roll, and the home team has won five of the last six battles (4-2 ATS).
The Cavaliers are on ATS sprees of 43-19 overall, 4-1 after both a SU and ATS win, 17-7 after a SU win of more than 10 points and 19-9 against winning teams, but they’ve cashed in just one of their last seven games against Southeast Division foes. The Hawks are on a 1-6 ATS slide on Sunday and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win, but they still sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-1 against the Central Division, 4-1 going on one day’s rest and 8-3 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Cleveland is on stretches of 5-1 after a SU win, 8-2 against the Eastern Conference, 21-7 after a spread-cover and 36-15 on Sunday. On the flip side, the over for Atlanta is on streaks of 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 against the East and 17-5-1 against the Central Division. Finally, total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry overall and five of the last seven at Philips Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Antonio (39-18, 29-26-2 ATS) at Portland (36-22, 30-28 ATS)
The Spurs, who rolled to a home win over Portland four days ago, make the trek to the Pacific Northwest to face the Trail Blazers at the Rose Garden.
San Antonio lost to Cleveland 97-86 as a four-point home ‘dog Friday, which halted a 4-0 SU and ATS surge that was capped by a 99-84 win over the Blazers as a five-point home chalk Wednesday. For the season, the Spurs have put up an average of 97.4 ppg and allowed 93.6 ppg, but they’ve tightened up the defense in the past five games, allowing an average of 80.6 ppg while scoring 91.8.
Portland rebounded from its loss to the Spurs by rolling over Minnesota 102-82 giving 4½ points on the road Friday to notch its lone win on a brief three-game road trip (2-1 ATS). The Blazers are on an 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) tear at home, scoring 106 points or more five times in that stretch and winning by an average final score of 12 points per game (105-93).
San Antonio is on a 14-1 SU binge in the last 15 games of this rivalry, but the Spurs are just 8-7 ATS in that span. The teams have split two meetings SU and ATS this year, with the home club winning and covering in both. The host is on a 4-0 ATS upswing in this rivalry and San Antonio has cashed in 21 of the last 31 meetings overall, but the Blazers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes in Portland.
The Spurs are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 after a day off, 7-2-1 on the road, 6-2 against Northwest Division foes and 20-8-1 against the Western Conference. The Blazers are on identical 2-5 ATS skids against the Southwest Division and against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but in addition to their 6-2 ATS run at home, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 8-2 after a SU win and 4-0 on one day’s rest.
The over for San Antonio is on stretches of 10-4 overall, 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3 on the road, and the over for Portland is on runs of 4-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-1-1 after a spread-cover and 8-3-1 after a SU win. Also, these teams have topped the total in five of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and OVER
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